US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates a significant decrease in inflation during the first six months of 2026. During his appearance on Fox Business, he linked this expected relief to the closure of the US borders and a decline in rental prices. Bessent projected 3.5% GDP growth for 2025 and predicted that 2026 could be a “bountiful” year, provided the government remains operational.

The secretary forecasted tax returns in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion for the first quarter of 2026, which would amount to approximately $1,000 to $2,000 per household. He attributed current pressures to what he referred to as “Biden’s inflation” but remained optimistic about 2026. Bessent also mentioned that a Supreme Court decision on tariffs is expected in early January.

Regarding personnel decisions at the Federal Reserve, Bessent indicated that US President Donald Trump would announce a new head in early January. The official referred to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as “highly qualified” candidates. He also voiced concerns that the Federal Reserve has become an “unelected institution that lost trust.”

Regarding international matters, the secretary stated that China has adhered to established agreements. At the same time, he emphasized that maintaining a $1 trillion trade surplus would be unsustainable for the country. Bessent also pledged to reduce the budget deficit by several hundred billion dollars in the current year.